Tracking Tourist Behaviour During Environmental Crises: Analysing Economic Indicators, Social Sentiment, and Tourist Mobility in the Mar Menor Lagoon

Abstract

The Mar Menor, one of Europe's largest coastal lagoons, has experienced severe ecological crises over the past decade due to ongoing environmental degradation. These events, characterized by algal blooms and mass mortality of marine life have sparked widespread public concern and threaten the region's vital tourism industry. This study quantifies the impact of these environmental catastrophes on tourism across three key dimensions: economic, social, and mobility. To achieve this, we employ a mixed-methods approach using three distinct data sources. First, we analyse official economic statistics to track fluctuations in traveller arrivals, overnight stays, and average stay durations between 2012 and 2022. Second, we utilize social sensing to Twitter data to evaluate public discourse and tourist sentiment regarding the crises. Finally, we analyse nationwide human mobility datasets to detect shifts and structural breaks in tourist flows. Our findings demonstrate a direct correlation between the ecological crises (specifically the 2016, 2019, and 2021 episodes) and significant declines in tourism. This research highlights how severe environmental degradation drastically alters tourist behaviour, emphasizing the need for sustainable coastal management to protect local economies.